Bonikowska: Situated between Germany and Russia, Poland understands the danger it is, now that “the United States as the custodian of a global order founded on international law and institutions, has concluded.”
photo: wyborcza.pl
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” said Spanish-American philosopher George Santayana in his 1905 work The Life of Reason. The line has been borrowed and paraphrased by many great thinkers, including Winston Churchill.
It is being cycled again, this time by a Polish foreign policy analyst who said Europe must restore its power or risk becoming a subordinate area of influence.
Małgorzata Bonikowska, director of the Center for International Relations Foundation (CSM), a think tank located in Warsaw, contends the world is already entering “an era of brutal rivalry” among great countries for areas of influence, resources, and technical supremacy.
Bonikowska stated that the U.S. military operation in Venezuela, culminating in President Nicolás Maduro’s detention by the United States, ought to serve as a clarion call for the European Union.
She informed Poland’s PAP news agency the incident indicates a wider transition away from a rules-based international order.
“The epoch of a multilateral world, with the United States as the custodian of a global order founded on international law and institutions, has concluded,” she stated.
Her words echoed those of Salzburg Global Fellow Marco Overhaus, who in an op-ed piece in the Salzburg Global, said the era of American power is just about over.
Overhaus, the author of Big Brother Gone: Europe and the End of Pax Americana, (Frankfurter Allgemeine Buch, 2025) said the pillars of Pax Americana — military credibility, economic openness, and democratic values — are weakening and may not endure.
He also said growing U.S. unpredictability and global power shifts are undermining America’s role as Europe’s reliable security guarantor.
Thirdly, which is where Bonikowska comes in, Overhaus said Europe must reduce its dependence on the United States and prepare for greater strategic and security autonomy.
Bonikowska says Washington has delineated its own territory. She stated that the Venezuela operation aimed to expel Russia and China from the nation and convey that the United States “will employ any means” it considers essential to uphold its dominance in its zone of influence.
In that, Europe’s risks are being marginalized, she said.
“They consider China and Russia, yet they neglect Europe,” said Bonikowka, contending the continent must now determine if it can assert itself as an independent power.
Two Scenarios. She presented two scenarios. Initially, Europe restructures itself around the European Union to form what she termed a “Europe of Power,” emphasizing strength in four critical domains: the economy, technology, control of vital resources, and military might.
In the second scenario, Europe transforms into a sphere of influence for an alternative power, as she characterizes it as a revitalized “concert of powers,” making neutrality increasingly difficult to maintain.
Bonikowska said Poland comprehends the peril due to its historical position situated between Germany and Russia.
She said for Western Europe, the situation is more psychologically challenging to comprehend, contending that it has not been within anyone’s area of control “for 400 years.”
To mitigate strategic dependency, Bonikowska asserted Europe must continue supporting Ukraine, enhance weapons production, recalibrate expenditure priorities, and strengthen collaboration in sectors that influence power, particularly defense, technology, and access to raw resources.
She contended that this did not need transforming the European Union into a singular superstate, but may instead result in a more flexible “confederation,” characterized by enhanced collective governance in essential domains and reduced external reliance.
Bonikowska criticized what she termed Europe’s diminished capability for strategic governance, advocating for reforms to reinstate the ability to make long-term decisions.
She proposed that Europe contemplate options inspired by ancient Greece, where a wartime strategos was designated with exceptional authority, noting that this “does not necessarily have to be a single individual.”
If this all sounds familiar, it should. Maybe this time Europe – and hopefully Washington – will pay attention before it is too late.
